The Commissioner and Rose predict the first round

The unpredictable playoff results have been predicted by the Commissioner and Rose again this season. Last season, the commish out-guessed the accountant by a single series.

Paris (No. 1 seed) vs. Madrid (No. 8)

Commissioner: Paris should take this one with ease. Madrid kind of backed into the playoffs, having lost 9 of its last 11 games. Included in that stretch was a 6-0 loss to Paris and a 6-2 loss to Paris in the Royals’ final game. Paris has home ice advantage in the series and the Rouge Eiffels put together the league’s best home record, losing only 5 games all season. Jordan Staal is still injured for Madrid and they need his defensive ability against the EURO’s deadliest offense (4.16 goals per game). I see a 4-1 Paris win in the series.

Rose: Paris is David, Madrid is Goliath. I am not quite old enough to have witnessed David win that contest, but I remember some of my older relatives telling me the story. Madrid has some stones they can hurl at Paris. Erik Karlsson can make things happen out there and he is healthy. He’s also very cute. I think the key will be R.J. Umberger, who will be playing the right side of the top line with Derek Stepan and Gabriel Landeskog. Those two have been productive offensively and they need their RW to match them. If that happens, Madrid has some experienced defensemen who can protect leads, even against Malkin, Perry and those Paris fellows. I predict a Madrid upset in 7 games.

Berlin (No.2) vs. Franfurt (No. 7)

Commissioner: Berlin is the favorite among the German rivals that play a 5-hour drive from each other. Frankfurt has Steven Stamkos, Claude Giroux and Alexander Steen, as well as some young stars on defense, but their overall defensive play will be their downfall. Only three other EURO teams have given up more goals than the Inferno has this season and Smurf forwards like Logan Couture, Loui Eriksson, David Krejci and Ryan Callahan should be able to run circles around them. If Berlin keeps its collective head and doesn’t take uncharacteristic dumb penalties, they should advance in 6 games.

Rose: The commissioner has bad body odor and he forgot that Frankfurt possesses the league’s top scorer in Steven Stamkos. In his last 6 games, Stamkos has averaged 5 shots per game and more than a point per contest. In the two games before those, he only got 4 shots on goal (and 3 assists) but Claude Giroux played target man with 14 shots in those two games. So you have two huge threats to worry about with Frankfurt. Frankfurt’s problem is defense, but guess what? If they get a hot streak out of Kari Ramo and Jan Laco in goal … upset city. That’s what I predict – a 4-2 series victory for the Inferno.

Athens (No. 3) vs. Bratislava (No. 6)

Commissioner: Bratislava has played as well as any team in the league over the last 55 games, making up for their horrendous start. Despite a late-season bobble that kept them from the 4th place spot they were aiming for, it appears coach Brent Sutter and the players are definitely on the same page now. Tyler Myers has been great this season for the Eagles and led the league’s defensemen in goals with 25. Bratislava actually has a more productive offense than the Greeks do. In fact, they are third in the league in scoring. But as Rose pointed out, a hot goalie could swing a series and Bratislava’s hopes depend on goalie Corey Crawford. Look for Crawford to spoil his former team’s season. Bratislava in 7 games.

Rose: Athens is more balanced and better. Athens will prove it. They have a lot of big, strong, talented players like David Backes and Dustin Byfuglien, but the second line will carry them as it has all season. Ryan O’Reilly and Dimitrios Kalyvas are both plus 33 or better and O’Reilly was second on the team in scoring with 83. As Bratislava worries about containing Backes and 40-goal scorer Scott Hartnell, the secondary lines will blast through them. In goal, Cam Ward has the fifth best save percentage in the league and the Eagles have gotten poor goaltending this year. I can’t see how Athens can lose this series. And that John Tortorella dresses very well all the time. That counts in my book. The Greeks advance after 5 games.

Zurich (No. 4) vs. Bern (No. 5) 

Commissioner: I consider Zurich to be one of the most underrated teams in the league. The fact that they finished at the front of the furious three-team battle for that 4th place spot tells me they have what it takes to advance to the second round. But it won’t be easy. If experience matters in the playoffs, Bern has it. A lineup full of veterans like Jason Spezza, Henrik Zetterberg, Shane Doan and Tobias Enstrom could push them through, but I look at Radim Vrbata as the key. Vrbata scores points (second to Spezza on the team) but he tries to make risky passes. So does Mika Zibanejad, who centers the second line. Zurich still has a stable of speedy forwards who can make a team pay for a bad pass. The Lions gave up Alexander Radulov in a trade with Helsinki, but they have the league’s top goal scorer in Ilya Kovalchuk, as well as Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Patrice Bergeron and Drew Stafford. Zurich to win the series in 7 games.

Rose: I agree this should be a close series between two Swiss teams that play less than an hour’s drive from each other. Zurich has the better stats coming in, having won 8 of their last 10 games and 4 of the 6 meetings between these teams this season, but I believe the numbers will balance themselves out. Bern’s Brent Seabrook’s statistics improve considerably when he’s in the playoffs and he’s on the ice more than anyone. And Shane Doan’s leadership has made a huge difference since he came over from Stockholm. His lone Bern season was better than any of the three he played with the Spartans/Eagles. Mike Smith the goalie has a better save percentage than Zurich’s Roberto Luongo does this season, and that could be the difference in a tight series. How about the Bears in 7?

Northern Conference predictions will be published Monday.

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